So while the s&p:gold ratio to it's average has already flipped to the-ve, the s&p:wti to it's average still looks fine, ie oil has not gone up yet wrt s&p.
Is your belief that it will is due to middle east eascalations, or does the s&p :gold behaviour lead it.
From a retail investor trying to figure things out
Historically there is 3 to 6 months between the flip of the SPX/Gold ratio below its 7-year moving average and the flip of the SPX/Oil below its 7-year moving average. That event can simply be indicted by the heating up war cycle in the Middle East pushing oil price higher while at the same time political uncertainties around the White House push the S&P lower. In any cases nobody should own bonds in the current environment and next week you will see how Gold not Bond is the Antifragile asset to own for the rest of the decade at least.
You definitively do not know what is counterparty risks and I think your clients are not prepared when the role of the antifragile asset with no counterparty risks will be needed because reckless Kamunists like you are triggering the next sovereign debt crisis.
You’re telling a former RIA and former HNW insurance underwriter—who's personally written multi-million-dollar physical gold policies and advised clients of Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, and McKinsey—that I “don’t know what counterparty risk is”? Because I benchmarked your affiliate pitch?
Let’s be blunt. You’re not defending clients. You’re defending a revenue stream.
Your “antifragility” narrative falls apart under basic scrutiny. Self-custody of physical gold isn’t resilience, it’s uninsured fragility with a libertarian aesthetic. Here’s what your readers actually inherit when they follow your advice:
— Theft and home invasion risk
— Fire/flood/property loss with payout disputes
— Sky-high premiums or denied claims from underwriters
— Illiquidity when they need it most
— Estate distribution chaos
— No audit trail for trust/legal protection
— IRS flags for non-disclosed high-value storage
Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers offers insured, institutional-grade storage with ~90% lower trading fees and no affiliate kickbacks. You didn’t even benchmark it.
You built trust with macro analysis and monetized it with retail grift. That’s not strategy. That’s financial cosplay with a mask on.
Call me a communist all you want. Just don’t pretend you’re the adult in the room while shilling overpriced bullion under the guise of analysis, ending in an affiliate link.
J.F. | Causality Partners
Former RIA. Former HNW insurance underwriter. Structural thinker. Not your exit liquidity.
We never met and and I do not think we will ever meet.
I do not make any money from this reference link.
I am not writing this substack for profits but to educate people and fight against banksters and reckless politicians who are spreading smoke and mirrors.
Please refrain from further unsolicited and inappropriate comments. I am under no obligation to report to you, and my clients are fully aware that I do not earn any personal compensation from the links I share. If this harassment continues, I will be compelled to take the appropriate steps to address your behavior.
You invited me here—to “learn about Western decline.”
Well, I did.
Just not in the way you intended.
You claim to be uncompensated while using affiliate links across your content, including those explicitly formatted as referral codes (e.g., ?aff=TMB). Those links track traffic for commercial attribution. Public-facing affiliate programs such as Hard Assets Alliance and GoldSilver.com offer trailing commissions or other financial incentives by default unless explicitly waived through a rare opt-out agreement—which you’ve never substantiated.
Your disclaimer—“I do not earn any personal compensation”—now sits in tension with:
Your repeated use of monetizable referral links;
The affiliate programs' own terms;
Your lack of transparent documentation;
And the absence of any disclaimers within the posts themselves.
I assess with near-total confidence that your claim is false.
I say that not to harass, but to protect the people reading you in good faith.
You built trust with macro insight and appear to be monetizing it—without benchmarking, without disclosure, and without accountability.
If that’s incorrect, show us your affiliate agreement. Otherwise, don’t threaten me for stating the obvious.
So while the s&p:gold ratio to it's average has already flipped to the-ve, the s&p:wti to it's average still looks fine, ie oil has not gone up yet wrt s&p.
Is your belief that it will is due to middle east eascalations, or does the s&p :gold behaviour lead it.
From a retail investor trying to figure things out
Historically there is 3 to 6 months between the flip of the SPX/Gold ratio below its 7-year moving average and the flip of the SPX/Oil below its 7-year moving average. That event can simply be indicted by the heating up war cycle in the Middle East pushing oil price higher while at the same time political uncertainties around the White House push the S&P lower. In any cases nobody should own bonds in the current environment and next week you will see how Gold not Bond is the Antifragile asset to own for the rest of the decade at least.
Stay tuned
I am quite stunned by this. Thanks
You definitively do not know what is counterparty risks and I think your clients are not prepared when the role of the antifragile asset with no counterparty risks will be needed because reckless Kamunists like you are triggering the next sovereign debt crisis.
You’re telling a former RIA and former HNW insurance underwriter—who's personally written multi-million-dollar physical gold policies and advised clients of Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, and McKinsey—that I “don’t know what counterparty risk is”? Because I benchmarked your affiliate pitch?
Let’s be blunt. You’re not defending clients. You’re defending a revenue stream.
Your “antifragility” narrative falls apart under basic scrutiny. Self-custody of physical gold isn’t resilience, it’s uninsured fragility with a libertarian aesthetic. Here’s what your readers actually inherit when they follow your advice:
— Theft and home invasion risk
— Fire/flood/property loss with payout disputes
— Sky-high premiums or denied claims from underwriters
— Illiquidity when they need it most
— Estate distribution chaos
— No audit trail for trust/legal protection
— IRS flags for non-disclosed high-value storage
Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers offers insured, institutional-grade storage with ~90% lower trading fees and no affiliate kickbacks. You didn’t even benchmark it.
You built trust with macro analysis and monetized it with retail grift. That’s not strategy. That’s financial cosplay with a mask on.
Call me a communist all you want. Just don’t pretend you’re the adult in the room while shilling overpriced bullion under the guise of analysis, ending in an affiliate link.
J.F. | Causality Partners
Former RIA. Former HNW insurance underwriter. Structural thinker. Not your exit liquidity.
We never met and and I do not think we will ever meet.
I do not make any money from this reference link.
I am not writing this substack for profits but to educate people and fight against banksters and reckless politicians who are spreading smoke and mirrors.
"I do not make any money from this reference link."
Also:
"https://hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=TMB
Join The Macro Butler on Telegram here : https://t.me/TheMacroButlerSubstack
You can contact The Macro Butler at info@themacrobutler.com
If this video has inspired you to invest in gold and silver, consider GoldSilver.com to buy your physical gold: https://goldsilver.com/?aff=TMB"
"I do not make any money from this reference link."
You're using a referral code.
It's on nearly all of your content, certainly everything on here.
The trailing commissions are large, I might sign up myself.
But you're not making money... Right...
The audacity to lie to my face and do so publicly.
Please refrain from further unsolicited and inappropriate comments. I am under no obligation to report to you, and my clients are fully aware that I do not earn any personal compensation from the links I share. If this harassment continues, I will be compelled to take the appropriate steps to address your behavior.
You invited me here—to “learn about Western decline.”
Well, I did.
Just not in the way you intended.
You claim to be uncompensated while using affiliate links across your content, including those explicitly formatted as referral codes (e.g., ?aff=TMB). Those links track traffic for commercial attribution. Public-facing affiliate programs such as Hard Assets Alliance and GoldSilver.com offer trailing commissions or other financial incentives by default unless explicitly waived through a rare opt-out agreement—which you’ve never substantiated.
Your disclaimer—“I do not earn any personal compensation”—now sits in tension with:
Your repeated use of monetizable referral links;
The affiliate programs' own terms;
Your lack of transparent documentation;
And the absence of any disclaimers within the posts themselves.
I assess with near-total confidence that your claim is false.
I say that not to harass, but to protect the people reading you in good faith.
You built trust with macro insight and appear to be monetizing it—without benchmarking, without disclosure, and without accountability.
If that’s incorrect, show us your affiliate agreement. Otherwise, don’t threaten me for stating the obvious.
— J.F. | Causality Partners
Not your exit liquidity.